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| A cat displays social distancing typical of its species. |
By Paul Coleman
Londoners knew little about Coronavirus at the start of 2020.
So what do we know now after seven months of the pandemic and three months of lockdown?
Firstly, there's the death toll across the United Kingdom, estimated at over 60,000 people.
We do know for sure, from official sources based on laboratory testing and death certificates, that at least 42,647 people have died in the UK from Coronavirus, as of Monday 22 June 2020.
Of those officially recorded deaths, 6,266 people died in London, some 15% of the total UK death toll.
Imagine a full Royal Albert Hall.
Now visualise it empty.
Absorbent
This rising death toll was a grim tale frequently retold during April and May.
Yet in June, people don't speak about others dying.
The media has largely moved on to the story of lockdown relaxation.
Football is back on the telly. Life is 'normal' again.
Have we really gotten used to the idea of such deaths?
Are we that absorbent?
Or just fearful?
Clap
Londoners no longer weekly clap for the nurses, doctors, care home carers, porters and cleaners - the people who work around the clock at great personal risk to themselves to save the lives of Coronavirus patients.
We no longer routinely and publicly show our appreciation for transport, telecommunications, supermarket and postal workers who have kept us supplied and connected during lockdown.
Yet it doesn't take much, though, for us to still show that kind appreciation on a one-to-one and daily basis.
Say thank you in person next time.
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| Pupils and teachers at Barnfield Primary School in north London display their gratitude to NHS workers. Photo: © Paul Coleman, London Intelligence ® London 2020 |
Positive
We are though constantly told the number of new confirmed virus cases is falling; 958 new cases of infection were reported yesterday (22 June 2020).
Fifteen people died - the lowest daily death toll for months but still a grim tragedy for those people and their loved ones.
The United Kingdom government - often a chaotic bunch - tells the world it actually has a plan that is 'getting the job done' - that London and the rest of the country is entering a positive phase.
Is such optimism justified, especially since the government's plan has involved a late lockdown, discharging untested hospital patients to vulnerable care homes, zero border controls and a debacle over testing, tracing and tracking?
Cautiously
Despite the deaths and debacles, some people in London seem less afraid of the pandemic now.
People who have survived their symptoms - or who know people who have suffered and survived - remain cautiously hopeful.
Coronavirus, for many others though, is still something that happens to other people but not to their families or friends.
Anxious and financially precarious, Londoners want to get back to their jobs.
Bored and frustrated by lockdown, many want to go back to their idea of normal.
They want to go out and shop - and to pub, puff, party and rave.
Let's hope they - and hospital workers and the rest of us - don't pay a heavy price for their fun.
Time
As Londoners, it's worth bearing in mind that just a few months ago - at the start of 2020 - Coronavirus remained a distant news story from China.
We do now recall that people were getting sick back then with what we thought was just a bad case of flu.
Six months later, Londoners are fluent in the language of pandemic - R numbers, test, track and trace, social distancing, flattening the curve, and the dangers of aerosol.
So where might this pandemic lead us to now?
Transmission
Coronavirus still depends on surfaces and air to successfully transmit infection.
Scientists - sometimes a messy bunch - say that just breathing and talking alone can generate thousands of micro-droplets that might carry enough of the virus to spread and infect.
We can't see the droplets we continuously emit.
And, we don't need to laugh, shout or sing to emit them.
Outdoors
Scientists say these droplets are particularly risky indoors or on crowded public transport.
People are generally less at risk when they're outdoors - as long as they are not in crowds and their encounters with others are fleeting.
The virus doesn't transmit and infect so well where there is wind, sunlight and heat.
The mantra remains.
Keep washing your hands.
Don't touch your face.
Wear masks in public and in shops.
Keep your distance.
Asymptomatic
What else do we know?
We know temperature checks don't detect possible carriers who are asymptomatic - as they don't have fevers.
Mandatory frequent testing of everybody for Coronavirus in workplaces and schools is therefore essential.
Results need to be returned quickly.
Testing must become as omnipresent as CCTV.
Politicians might say this will be crazily expensive.
But Coronavirus has meant we're already resorting to a lot of ideas grabbed from the box marked 'crazy'.
Furthermore, investment in comprehensive testing would allow more Londoners to go back to work.
Immunity
People who have recovered from Coronavirus symptoms - and those asymptomatic - have Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies.
Medical experts say IgGs 'indicate' immunity.
'Indicate' is one of those words that sits on the fence.
You can assume you might be immune if you're tested positive for IgG but scientists also say don't bet your house - or your life - on it.
Complex
How much IgG do we need to be immune?
The experts don't know.
Even doctors and nurses might behave as if they're now immune having recovered from Coronavirus.
They're entitled to feel happier but scientists cautiously add that our knowledge of Coronavirus is still too primitive to definitely prove immunity.
And, how long does immunity last?
Again, the answer is a deafening 'dunno'.
Immunity remains a complex science.
Kindness
The simple truth now is that we're in flamin' June 2020.
The sun shines.
People bask in parks.
Illegal raves mingle thousands of younger people.
The government has already introduced 'bubbles' - artificial family and household circles that Coronavirus doesn't have the social manners to respect.
Government has also relaxed the two-metre social distancing rule to one metre.
The one-metre rule will only work if Londoners behave thoughtfully and with kindness.
Yet virus testing for everyone is struggling to get off the ground.
Treatments for sufferers are only slowly beginning to emerge.
Anxiety remains that scarred lungs - pulmonary fibrosis - will hamper the lives of those still recovering from Coronavirus.
What next?
Winter 2020 already worries public health officials.
People naturally go indoors in Winter to eat, drink and be merry. Indoors, they will be more vulnerable to transmission and infection.
What does history tell us?
Past pandemics - especially 1918-19 - faded in summer months and then returned virulently in Winter.
Government needs to prepare.
Big hope
Vaccines remain the big hope.
Some 150 possible vaccines are currently being worked on around the world.
Vaccine factories are being built.
But when will a vaccine emerge?
We don't know.
How many doses will each Londoner need?
We don't know.
How long will a vaccine last?
Six months into the pandemic, all we know amounts to not enough.
Shelter
In the face of such uncertainty how should Londoners react?
Scientists did warn about an impending panic.
Public Health England officials warned about it in 2014.*
Politicians ignored their warning.
Hence, Londoners are expected to believe the Coronavirus pandemic of 2019-20 struck like a bolt from the blue - like some lightning strike.
It's often said our chances of being struck by lightning during a thunderstorm range from minimal to almost zero.
So why do we instinctively shelter from a lightning storm but seek to roam freely in a deadly pandemic?
* See 'Pandemic London: The Unheeded Scientific Warning of 2014, © London Intelligence ®, 27 May 2020
Note: Of 305,289 Coronavirus cases confirmed by laboratories, 27,455 (9%) were Londoners, as of 22 June 2020, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Sources: Office for National Statistics, Greater London Authority.
© Paul Coleman, London Intelligence ®, June 2020
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