Belgian rail tragedy: untangling fact from assumption

Very few clear facts have so far emerged from news reports about the fatal collision between two trains near Brussels on Monday (15 February). 

Caution is needed. Rail crash investigations often take a long time before unearthing any clear information let alone causes. As so often happens with such tragedies, the media report half-truths, assumptions and rumours as if they were confirmed facts.


For instance, TV bulletins and newspapers reported yesterday that the crash was 'head-on'. The day after the crash The Times was still running online reports of a 'head-on collision' (16 February). However, the Belgian train company SNCB (Société Nationale des Chemins de fer Belges) and track operator Infrabel had stated the trains had collided 'laterally', and not 'head on' as reported. 

It's known that at least 18 people have so far died. Some people are still missing. Dozens were injured, some very seriously. 

One train was a Leuven-Braine-le-Comte service and the other was travelling from Quievrain to Liege. It's being reported that the Leuven train driver survived whilst the driver of the other train was killed.

Unconfirmed news reports referred to two 'black box' data recorders that could shed light on possible causes. An SNCB official is also reported as saying one of the trains did not have a safety mechanism designed to slow or halt trains automatically at a red signal.

Photo: AFP for BBC News


Paul Coleman, London, February 2010

Death toll mounts after trains crash

Belgian authorities are saying that at least ten people are confirmed as dead after two commuter trains crashed into each other at Buizingen, near Halle, ten miles south of Brussels. Horrific images of mangled train bodywork, pantographs and overhead line equipment dominated TV news bulletins this morning.

Emergency services are still believed to be removing people from the wreckage (15.30 GMT). Eurostar services between Brussels and London's St Pancras International and high speed Paris-Brussels connections have been cancelled. 

Delays are likely to occur for several days as accident investigators examine and recover evidence. Only then can the trains and wreckage be cleared and work begun to repair and replace the damaged track and overhead lines. 

It's worth noting that the Rail Safety and Standards Board’s Overview of safety performance for 2009, published on 2 February, contained evidence of “further improvements in safety on Britain’s railways during last year”, highlighting that the risk of passengers or rail staff dying in train accidents had dropped by over 80% during the last decade. In 2009, there were no passengers or rail staff killed in train accidents in Britain - the fourth year in the last five with no such fatalities. Rail is regarded across Europe as far safer than road travel.

The accident occurs at a time when the British government is putting the final touches to its plans to effectively extend the European high speed rail network to the Midlands, North and to Scotland with High Speed 2. A White Paper is expected next month. High Speed 1 already connects St. Pancras International with Paris and Brussels. 

Top photo: Thierry Roge, Reuters
Left: Map of European high speed rail network displayed at Ebbsfleet International station in north Kent.


Paul Coleman, London, February 2010.

Coleman under fire

Harold Hill welcomed Brian Coleman with open arms and clenched fists on Thursday (11 February). 

Brandishing 'Coleman Must Go' placards, firefighters chose the opening of a new 'state-of-the-art' fire station at Harold Hill in east London to vent their anger at Coleman's plans to introduce new 12-hour shift patterns. 

Councillor Coleman (no relation, I stress), chairman of the London Fire and Emergency Planning Authority, wants firefighters to work 11,12 and 13-hour shifts including shorter nights and longer days. Other plans include cutting fire engine crews from five to four and removing beds from fire stations. Apparently, in the interests of modernisation, Harold Hill station replaces beds with reclining chairs. "I'm entirely relaxed that we are making London a safer place for all Londoners," said Coleman.

"No change is not an option," said Coleman afterwards. Industrial action could follow, said the Fire Brigades Union. Photos of an entirely relaxed Coleman (absolutely no relation), nabbing forty winks in his office, circulated after the firefighters' protest (above). Posters featuring Coleman were removed from London fire stations on the orders of Fire Brigade chiefs (below). 

Understandably, people in London are worried about possible fires to come. Argument between the three main political parties is confined to the level of cuts most politicians seem to agree must be made to public services to re-balance the city's economy. Accident and emergency, maternity units and rail maintenance jobs are all in the firing line. Redundancies, the fear of redundancy and new working conditions, imposed in the name of 'efficiency' and 'modernisation', cramp peoples' lives and shrinks ambitions across the city.

As the election nears, many voters are reflecting that Prime Minister Gordon Brown's government bailed out the bankers in the City of London with billions of pounds of taxpayers' money. Yet, by all accounts (please excuse the pun), the banks are still not lending that money to help new and existing businesses whilst the bankers pay themselves massive bonuses once again. 

Meanwhile, as the announcement of a date for the next general election looms, Gordon Brown appears on a national TV, interviewed by Piers Morgan, to apparently convince working people that he's a regular good guy who deserves their votes.

Postscript: London Mayor Boris Johnson officially opened the Harold Hill fire station, a project that was initiated during the reign of his predecessor, Ken Livingstone. Faced by the protesting firefighters, our beloved Mayor left by a back entrance. 

Top photo: Romford Recorder


Paul Coleman, London, February 2010.

Owen Coles way ahead of Wayne Rooney

It's the FA Cup 5th Round this weekend (13-14 February) so attention happily switches away from the Premiership soap opera. Yet it's worth reflecting that Owen Coles, Manchester United's ace striker, strengthened his position as the Premiership's top scorer for this season by notching four goals in United's last two matches, three against Portsmouth and one at Aston Villa. 

Owen Coles is way ahead of United's Wayne Rooney and Chelsea's Didier Drogba, as the table shows.

Premiership Top Scorers

Player                                                   Club                       Goals 

Own Goals                                           Various FC                        29

Wayne Rooney                                 Manchester America               21

Didier Drogba                                         Chelski                           17

Darren Bent                                          Sunderland                       15

Jermaine Defoe                                    Tottenham                       15

Louis Saha                                              Everton                          13

Manchester United paid £30.75 million for striker Dimitar Berbatov. In his second season, Berbatov has scored only eight goals for United, two less than Own Goals who cost United nothing.

Own Goals can also win FA Cup Finals. As the above photo shows, Owen Coles (red shirt, third from right, and looking remarkably like former England defender Des Walker), nods home the winning own goal that sent his Nottingham Forest team crashing to a 2-1 defeat against Tottenham Hotspur in the 1991 final at Wembley Stadium. Gary Mabbutt is the challenging Spurs player and, if you can see behind Gary Lineker's ears (they're rather big, as he's often said himself), there's Steve Hodge and Stuart Peace. 

Photo: Daily Mail

Paul Coleman, London, February 2010.

Sleeping beauty

'

The beautiful Peacock butterfly that has adopted my office as its place of hibernation woke up and enjoyed a brief flit.

    I last saw the butterfly sat next to my phone. It was probably making a long distance call to one of its cousins, as the photo shows. My next phone bill will be sky high, I expect.

   For a couple of days, the cute little creature had seemed content to hang out in the shoe box butterfly hut I'd built for it. I'd filled the box with grass, earth and leaves to provide the new tenant with more familiar furniture.

It shuffled and then settled.

Wings closed. 

Motionless. 

   Yesterday morning, out of the blue, it flew out of the box and fluttered eagerly onto the window, displaying its glorious upper wings. 

Outside snow flurried in the freezing air. 

Surely, it'd soon be 'Hovis' * if I let it out?

Panicked, I rang the London Butterfly Centre 

at Syon Park in west London. 

"Nah, mate,  that place closed down two years ago," said some geez. 

"It's flown to Lincolnshire. Syonara. Let me see, if I can find the new number?"

Meanwhile, the butterfly settled down by the phone keypad as if it knew what number to dial.

"Hello, Butterfly and Wildlife Park, one moment please...Can I help you?"

- "I've got a Peacock butterfly and it looks stressed out."

"No, don't worry, they do that, stretch their wings and then find somewhere to rest again," said Ann of the Butterflies.

- "Do I need to feed it?"

"No, it will feed on the skin mites in the air in your house."

- "How can I tell if it's male or female?"

"You can't. Butterflies are androgynous."

- So I could call it Bobbie or Billie then?"

"If you want." 

- "Like Billie Jean King, the tennis player." 

"No, call it Chris."

- "Why Chris?"

" Chrysalis. Look, must fly. Good luck. Bye."

I placed a magnifying glass in front of the Peacock's face. 

Magnified, a butterfly looks fierce. Scary even, especially as I now know it's some kind of hibernating, gender bending cannibal wielding a tennis racket. (Click on the image to enlarge, if you dare!)

I gazed at the still falling snow outside.
Perhaps I should try to get out more too, I thought.

I looked down at the phone but the butterfly had vanished.

* 'Hovis' = Hovis, the manufacturers of 'brown bread', that rhymes with 'dead' in Cockney rhyming slang. 


The Butterfly & Wildlife Park is open over half-term. It's based at Long Sutton, near Spalding in Lincolnshire in eastern England. 
Tel: + 44 (0)1406 363833


Paul Coleman, London, February 2010.

Seismic economics

Three massive calculations caught my attention in the past few days. First up, Jean-Max Bellerive, Prime Minister of Haiti, who says more than 200,000 people died in the catastrophic earthquake that devastated the Caribbean island on 12 January. Bellerive also says 300,000 were injured and 4,000 lost one or more limbs. Over 250,000 houses and 30,000 businesses were destroyed. 

Worse still, the earthquake devastated a country with a population three times larger than Jamaica but with less than half of Jamaica's economic output. Bellerive didn't put a cash figure on the destruction. "In terms of figures, it is disaster on a planetary scale," said Bellerive.

The second calculation comes from Los Angeles' money men who have calculated that California earns $100 billion every year from agriculture, oil and tourism that are the by-products of its earthquake prone geology. "California gets struck by a hugely destructive seismic shake every 100 to 150 years," says geologist Iain Stewart. The number crunchers in Los Angeles, Stewart adds, have calculated that "a major earthquake would cause up to $250 billion worth of damage, a huge sum. But averaged out over a century, they're still in profit, with $100 billion coming in every year versus a one-off hit of $250 billlion. That's a gain of forty to one. Any economist will tell you, that's a pretty decent return."

A smaller but similarly mammoth calculation has been attempted to analyse the cost benefits of Crossrail, the east-west rail link that will tunnel under London with a budget ceiling of £15.9 billion and which is scheduled to start operating trains in 2017.  Joe Weiss, transport projects director for the Corporation of London, (that's the local authority for the area known as the City of London, not the wider city of London), has calculated that Crossrail's costs could be outweighed by profit for the Treasury accrued from tax revenues generated by the new railway.

Weiss assumes Crossrail's enhancement of London's transport links will enable businesses to create 150,000 new jobs across London and south-eastern England. "That produces an extra two billion per year in tax revenues for the Treasury," says Weiss. Each of Crossrail's estimated 200m passenger journeys per year will generate a £1 per profit once operating costs are taken out. After ten years, Weiss goes on, Crossrail will have generated £2 billion in taxable fare revenue profits. 


Income from the sale and leasing of new offices being built in Canary Wharf, largely as result of Crossrail radically improving transport links to the area, will also be be taxed. "It's not unreasonable to expect over ten years an annual £0.6 billion from taxes on rentals alone and another £0.4 billion from the non-domestic business rate," Weiss continues. 

Hey Joe! Just give us the bottom line? "So in ten years, in real money, the government might see £23 billion back from the maximum of £15.9 billion committed to Crossrail," concludes Weiss.

Top photo: Haiti street scene (Courtesy of New York Times).
Middle: Designer's section impression of Crossrail station at Canary Wharf, east London (Courtesy of Crossrail).
Below: Blue line shows Crossrail route through central London on model of city.

Paul Coleman, London, February 2010.

Beauty that can't wait for Spring

I gained a new friend today, although he or she isn't saying much, being that he or she is a stunning Peacock butterfly whom I found shivering outside my window this afternoon.


According to Ian, a very helpful and informative chap on the other end of the phone at the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, the slight increase in temperatures across London has confused quite a few insects and prompted them prematurely to come out of hibernation. 


"If you leave it outside, it will die of cold," said Ian. 
- "That's if next door's cat doesn't get hold of it first," I replied. 


Ian advised me to dissolve some sugar in warm water and try to get the Peacock to feed and gain energy. Then put the butterfly in a shoe box. Cut a hole in the box for air, big enough for the butterfly to get out if it wants to stretch its wings.


After a hasty photo-shoot, I duly followed these instructions. My new tenant has stopped shivering and seems OK. Fingers crossed.


As you know, Peacock butterflies (Inachis io...you're impressed, eh !) are common to Britain and Ireland. The adults fly from July to September and again in Spring after hibernation. They feed on flower nectar and rest by folding up their wings. As you can see from the photo of my little friend below, the Peacock is blessed with superbly camouflaged charcoal underwings (click on image to enlarge).


Apparently, females lay batches of up to 500 eggs after mating in May. Now, does anyone know if it's a boy or a girl? 

Thanks to Ian at the RSPB and to Amrit for their helpful butterfly care suggestions. 


Paul Coleman, London, February 2010.